The Importance of Being Trent
In total Liverpool dropped 29 points in the Premier League between the first game of the 2018–19 season and the last game of the 2019–20 season. At the mid-way point in this bizarre season of silent stadiums they have already dropped 20 points.
After the 0–0 with Manchester United, many pundits suggested that the issue is with the front three, Firminho, Mane, and Salah. Subjectively this makes sense as Liverpool have been goalless in their last three league games which includes playing a Newcastle team who very graciously lost against Sheffield United, the team with the single worst record in all four divisions.
However, the stats tell a slightly different story. Lets begin with Bobby Firmino, often the most maligned of the front three. In 2019–20, as Liverpool stormed to their first title in thirty years, the Brazilian scored 9, assisted 8. So far this season he has notched 5 league goals and 3 assists. Overall he is slightly improved this season in terms of goal return, and he is slightly under for assists. His xG this season is .49 compared to .51 last season and his xG+A rate is identical for both seasons at .59.
One of the major differences in Firmino’s stats between this season and last season is in his passing types. At the half way stage this season he has already completed more switches of play and more crosses than he did in the entirety of last season. This suggests a player who is more involved in wider areas than in the previous season.
The pattern is pretty similar for Salah. An xG of 0.61 last year compared to 0.60 this season indicates that the player is perhaps not underperforming a great deal. An interesting difference is found in his npxG+xA (non penalty expected goals and expected assists) which has dropped from 0.54 to 0.36. Salah registered 10 assists last season compared to 3 so far and amid allegations that he has become more selfish, which is possible, I would suggest that the data indicates he has fewer options.
Sadio Mane scored 18 goals last season and looked, at times, utterly impossible to play against so his return of only 6 goals this season has led for some to suggest he is in poor form and needs a break. The stats here are a little more complicated as based on his xG, Mane slightly over-performed last season and is slightly underperforming this season. A 0.45xG in 2019–20 resulted in 18 league goals, while a 0.49xG this season has delivered 6. However, there has not been a significant drop in either his xG or xA to suggest that the problem lies with the Senegalese.
The most glaring difference in the stats between last season and this season is in the performance data of Trent Alexander-Arnold. His 13 assists in 35 starts were key to Liverpool ended their long wait for the title. Of all the players who started 10 or more games during the 19–20 season, the young right-back was only behind the front three in terms of xG+xA. He attempted more passes than anyone else (3147), switched the play more than anyone else (227 times), and put in more crosses than anyone else (183). While Trent is seeing the ball a similar amount (around 90 attempted passes per game) and is actually recording a better pass completion rate, 77% this season compared to 71% last season, he is completing far fewer switches and crosses.
One of the hallmarks of last season was the ability of both Liverpool fullbacks to switch the play from one to another. Especially with Alexander-Arnolds ability to do this with both feet allowed Liverpool to create pockets of space across the front line as defenses struggled to get across to shut the full backs down. Based on the stats these switches of play have reduced by some 23%.
Trent Alexander Arnold has been particularly effected by the absence of Van Dyke and the subsequent move of Fabinho to centre back. Fabinho’s ability to drop into central defense as Liverpool develop play allowed the two centre backs to go wider and provided cover behind Trent so he could play higher up the field. With no fit centre backs Trent has to be doubly cautious when moving forward as Liverpool can not rely on the speed of Joe Gomez or the world class all-round magic of Virgil Van Dyke if he is caught out of position. All this has forced Trent to be less attacking, which in turn exposes him to more defensive situations which highlight some of the weaknesses in his game. Further up the field it also makes things more difficult for Mo Salah as he doesnt have Alexander Arnold playing as high up the field, occupying defenders, and providing more space and time for the Egyptian. It also has effected the scoring opportunities for Firmino and Mane who were the main beneficiaries of Trent’s assists last season (6 out of Trent’s 13 assists were scored by Mane and Firmino). Finally, Trent doesn’t tend to stay out wide as much as Andrew Robertson which allowed midfielders such as Jordan Henderson to overlap Salah or drop into typical attacking full back positions further stretching defenses and increasing the fluidity of Liverpools attacking movements. With Trent adopting a more orthodox full back role the whole dynamic of Liverpool’s play has suffered.
While this is a season like no other with fitness levels tested to the extreme resulting in injuries to key players, if Liverpool want to retain their title they need to find a way to release Trent to play with the sort of freedom granted to him last year. Even if this fails to deliver the trophy it will certainly make the front three look better.
